EB2 India Green Card Prediction – Oct 2024 Bulletin and Beyond

USCIS has released the pending I485 on 14 May 2024.

Will EB2 India reach Dec 2014 in 2025?

The chances of EB2 India reaching 2014 are Zero. We expect the EB2 to move at a very low pace now.

As per data shared by USCIS, EB2 and EB3 pending i485 (meaning already in queue from Indian applicants) are:

• 35k EB2 pending i485
• 20k EB3

This means that about 55k applications are pending in total.

Now, if each EB2 and EB3 get about 3k per year, then by linear maths, it will take about 10 years for both to reach Dec 2014 again.

The COVID spillover is not available now and whosoever couldn’t get the green card, has missed the bus.

Unless any lawsuit results change the retrogression policy, skilled Indians will get no relief.

AOS Retrogression Lawsuits

AOS retrogression lawsuits have not yielded any results yet. All of the cases that Brad Banias filed were individual cases. Some of them have even been denied and their appeals are pending.

Normally, these kinds of cases where the government entity is challenged with a major change in their old practices do require time and most judges are not ready to take that plunge.

These individual lawsuits have been filed with the claim that USCIS can still approve their pending i485 even if the visa bulletin has been retrogressed.

As per the law and Brad’s arguments, Congress specifically allowed USCIS to do so but they have intentionally not followed this policy just because it is too complex and difficult for them to follow it.

You can listen to the above verbal argument in the US circuit court where the judges were also trying to question USCIS for why the law has not been implemented correctly.

It seems that USCIS has been waiting cautiously for the results of AOS lawsuits that are currently in progress for “wrong interpretation of the law” and allegedly unlawful retrogression. Why would they move the dates so far back in time otherwise?

Predictions for 2024-2025

Stay positive and hope for the best.

You can also estimate dates based on your priority date.

If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend interfiling the i693 form and improving your chances of getting a Green card earlier than others in the queue.

This app uses publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per-month visa allocation based on various factors.

The employment spillovers happen in this order:

1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:

• Unused EB4+EB5 ->
• EB1 ROW ->
• Unused EB1 ->
• EB2 ROW ->
• EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) ->
• EB3 ROW ->
• EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to the HappySchools blog which has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your green card date based on the same AI algorithm that we use for predicting visa bulletins.

1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.

This is what the estimated values look like.

This will help you decide on filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current soon.

You should be ready to file I-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.

How to Get a Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.

#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB5 Filing

If you have the money, you should file the green card using the EB5 investor route.

The dates are current for Indians in EB5 rural and high employment (HUA) reserved categories. Filing the EB5 with 800k investment in rural or HUA will make you eligible for EAD, AP immediately and will also help lock your child’s age.

The EB5 dates in reserved category may also retrogress in 2025 but they are current as of July 2024 visa bulletin.